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This study examines the propagation of the coronavirus epidemic in the USA. The objectives of the study were to determine whether propagation of the coronavirus was exponential or logistic in nature and to analyse the impact of measures taken by the authorities such as the closure of educational institutions and stay-at-home orders on the propagation rate. The variables considered for the study were the daily number of new cases and cumulative number of infections by the coronavirus, and the daily number and the cumulative number of deaths due to the infection. The study period considered was from 01/03/2020 to 25/05/2020.
The key results of the study were that the propagation of the coronavirus was logistic in nature and that there was a significant decrease in the peak propagation rate and an increase in the limiting level of cumulative cases after the imposition of stay-at-home orders across all states. This decrease in the peak propagation rate indicates that the measures have had the effect of ‘flattening the curve,’ but the consistent increase in the limiting level of cumulative cases indicates that the ‘curve’ has not ‘peaked’ yet, implying that the ‘unlocking’ was premature.
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