Analysing the Propagation of the Coronavirus Epidemic in the USA

Main Article Content

Mihir Dash

Abstract

This study examines the propagation of the coronavirus epidemic in the USA. The objectives of the study were to determine whether propagation of the coronavirus was exponential or logistic in nature and to analyse the impact of measures taken by the authorities such as the closure of educational institutions and stay-at-home orders on the propagation rate. The variables considered for the study were the daily number of new cases and cumulative number of infections by the coronavirus, and the daily number and the cumulative number of deaths due to the infection. The study period considered was from 01/03/2020 to 25/05/2020.

The key results of the study were that the propagation of the coronavirus was logistic in nature and that there was a significant decrease in the peak propagation rate and an increase in the limiting level of cumulative cases after the imposition of stay-at-home orders across all states. This decrease in the peak propagation rate indicates that the measures have had the effect of ‘flattening the curve,’ but the consistent increase in the limiting level of cumulative cases indicates that the ‘curve’ has not ‘peaked’ yet, implying that the ‘unlocking’ was premature.

Keywords:
Exponential, logistic, peak propagation rate, limiting level of cumulative cases.

Article Details

How to Cite
Dash, M. (2020). Analysing the Propagation of the Coronavirus Epidemic in the USA. Asian Research Journal of Current Science, 2(1), 95-100. Retrieved from https://globalpresshub.com/index.php/ARJOCS/article/view/899
Section
Short Research Articles

References

Batista M. “Estimation of the final size of the coronavirus epidemic by the logistic model,” Working Paper; 2020. Available:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023606v2.full.pdf

Dash M. Analysing the Propagation of the Coronavirus Epidemic: The Case of Wuhan in Hubei Province, China.” Epidemiology International 5(1) [Special Issue on SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)]. 2020a;39-43.

Dash M. “Analysing the Coronavirus Epidemic in India: Exponential vs Logistic Growth. Academic Journal of Current Research. 2020b;7(4):85-91.

Dash M. An Analysis of the Spread of the COVID-19 Epidemic in India's Lockdown. Academic Journal of Current Research. 2020c;7(6):79-86.

Jia L, Li K, Jiang Y, Guo X, Zhao T. Prediction and analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019,” Working Paper; 2020. Available:https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.05447.pdf

Li L, Yang Z, Dang Z, Meng C, Huang J, Meng H, Wnag D, Chen G, Zhang J, Peng H, Shao Y. “Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19,” Infectious Disease Modelling. 2020;5: 282-292.

Wu K, Darcet D, Wang Q, Sornette D. Generalized logistic growth modelling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world,” Working Paper; 2020. Available:https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.05681.pdf.