An Empirical Study on Export, Import and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

Main Article Content

Tanvir Alam
Sedratul Hirun Mossamma
Md. Emran Uddin


The purpose of this paper is to model Gross Domestic Product (GDP) current price as a function of export percentage change, import percentage change and total investment as a percentage of GDP for Bangladesh. We have used time series data for Bangladesh to show the long run and the short run relationship among the included time series variables. Although, the vector error term is found to be negative, however, because of the non-significant coefficient we could not confirm the long-term relationship among the variables. An ARDL model was performed to estimate the short run relationship among the variables. We find that export, import, and total investment are correlated with GDP growth in Bangladesh. The current value of export percentage change has significant impact on GDP current price.  Similar effect is found for import percentage change on GDP current price as well as the lag values of the variable also have significant impact on GDP. Total investment’s effect on GDP growth is significant at marginal level.

GDP, import, export, total investment, ARDL approach, VECM model

Article Details

How to Cite
Alam, T., Mossamma, S. H., & Uddin, M. E. (2021). An Empirical Study on Export, Import and Economic Growth in Bangladesh. Asian Journal of Economics, Finance and Management, 5(4), 1-8. Retrieved from
Original Research Article


Mahadevan R, Asafu-Adjaye J. Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries. Energy Policy. 2007;35(4):2481-2490.

Elliott G, Rothenberg TJ, Stock JH. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. National Bureau of Economic Research; 1992.

Phillips PC, Perron P. Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika. 1988;75(2):335-346.

Xu Z. On the causality between export growth and GDP growth: an empirical reinvestigation. Review of International Economics. 1996;4(2):172-184.

Henriques I, Sadorsky P. Export-led growth or growth-driven exports? The Canadian case. Canadian Journal of Economics. 1996;540-555.

Tan G. Export instability, export growth and GDP growth. Journal of Development Economics. 1983;12(1-2):219-227.

Islam MR, Haque M. The Success of Export and Its Impact on GDP of Bangladesh. International Journal of Investment Management and Financial Innovations. 2018;4(1):9-13.

Uğur A. Import and economic growth in Turkey: Evidence from multivariate VAR analysis. Journal of economics and Business. 2008;11(1-2):54-75.

Turan G, Karamanaj B. An empirical study on import, export and economic growth in Albania. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies. 2014;3(3):428.

Uddin H, Khanam M. Import, export and economic growth: the case of lower income country. Journal of Business and Management. 2017;19(1):37-42.

Hussain ME, Haque M. Foreign direct investment, trade, and economic growth: An empirical analysis of Bangladesh. Economies. 2016;4(2):7.

Kogid M, et al. Does import affect economic growth in Malaysia. The Empirical Economics Letters. 2011;10(3): 297-307.

Fourkan M. Modeling Long Run Relationship of GDP General Government Net Lending & Borrowing Gross National Savings and General Government Revenue for Bangladesh. Asian Journal of Economics, Finance and Management. 2021;34-42.

Paul BP. Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh: An ARDL bounds test approach. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance. 2014;5(1):1.

Fourkan M. Modeling Current Account Balance and General Government Net Lending and Borrowing and GDP Growth for Developed Countries. Asian Journal of Economics, Finance and Management. 2021;11-19.

Holtz-Eakin D, Newey W, Rosen HS. Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society. 1988;1371-1395.

Enders W. Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons; 2008.

Wooldridge JM. Introductory Econometrics: A modern Approach. Mason,OH: Cengage Learning. 2013;45-158.

Fourkan M, Uddin ME. Behavioral and Socio-economic Factors of Diabetes in US Counties: An Empirical Analysis. Asian Journal of Economics, Finance and Management. 2021;36-49.

Fourkan M. Does Medicaid Increase Emergency Room Use: Evidence from Oregon Health Program? South Dakota State University: Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 2019;3650.

Fourkan M, Keay MJ, Lee NK. Decreased Emergency Department Use Following Medicaid Expansion: Evidence from Oregon's Health Insurance Experiment. International Economic Journal. 2021;1-9.

Fourkan M. Crowdfunding: Antecedents of Number of Backers and Success of a Project. International Journal of Small Business and Entrepreneurship Research. 2021;9(2):1-13.

Damodar NG. Basic Econometrics-Damodar N. Gujarati. McGraw− Hill; 2004.

Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2001;16(3):289-326.